Deep Learning-Based Regional Ionospheric Total Electron Content Prediction-Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional LSTM Approach

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of deep learning approach in the prediction of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) during magnetically quiet periods. Two deep learning techniques, long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM), are employed to predict TEC values 24 hr ahead in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula (26.5°-40°N, 121°-134.5°E). The LSTM method predicts TEC at a single point based on time series of data at that point, whereas the ConvLSTM method simultaneously predicts TEC values at multiple points using spatiotemporal distribution of TEC. Both the LSTM and ConvLSTM models are trained using the complete regional TEC maps reconstructed by applying the Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Network-Poisson Blending (DCGAN-PB) method to observed TEC data. The training period spans from 2002 to 2018, and the model performance is evaluated using 2019 data. Our results show that the ConvLSTM method outperforms the LSTM method, generating more reliable TEC maps with smaller root mean square errors when compared to the ground truth (DCGAN-PB TEC maps). This outcome indicates that deep learning models can improve the prediction accuracy of TEC at a specific point by taking into account spatial information of TEC. We conclude that ConvLSTM is a reliable and efficient approach for the prompt ionospheric prediction.